Highlights
- •What is the primary question addressed by this study?Can we reliably identify older individuals at risk for depression?
- •What is the main finding of this study?Using selected information, the Manto Risk Prediction Models can predict the risk for developing of depression 2 years later with satisfactory accuracy. The streamlined Manto Risk Prediction Model is available for free public use through a web-based risk calculator (https://manto.unife.it/).
- •What is the meaning of the finding?Estimating an individual's risk for developing late-life depression allows to target prevention strategies at an individual and a population-level.
Abstract
Objective
To develop streamlined Risk Prediction Models (Manto RPMs) for late-life depression.
Design
Prospective study.
Setting
The Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) study.
Participants
Participants were community residing adults aged 55 years or older.
Measurements
The outcome was presence of depression at a 2-year follow up evaluation. Risk factors
were identified after a literature review of longitudinal studies. Separate RPMs were
developed in the 29,116 participants who were not depressed at baseline and in the
combined sample of 39,439 of non-depressed and depressed subjects. Models derived
from the combined sample were used to develop a web-based risk calculator.
Results
The authors identified 129 predictors of late-life depression after reviewing 227
studies. In non-depressed participants at baseline, the RPMs based on regression and
Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalty (34 and 58 predictors,
respectively) and the RPM based on Artificial Neural Networks (124 predictors) had
a similar performance (AUC: 0.730–0.743). In the combined depressed and non-depressed
participants at baseline, the RPM based on neural networks (35 predictors; AUC: 0.807;
95% CI: 0.80–0.82) and the model based on linear regression and LASSO penalty (32
predictors; AUC: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79–0.82) had satisfactory accuracy.
Conclusions
The Manto RPMs can identify community-dwelling older individuals at risk for developing depression
over 2 years. A web-based calculator based on the streamlined Manto model is freely available at https://manto.unife.it/ for use by individuals, clinicians,
and policy makers and may be used to target prevention interventions at the individual
and the population levels.
Key Words
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: June 16, 2022
Accepted:
May 30,
2022
Received in revised form:
May 26,
2022
Received:
February 21,
2022
Identification
Copyright
© 2022 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
